Preseason Rankings
Illinois St.
Missouri Valley
2020-21
Overall
Predictive Rating-1.8#188
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace68.9#175
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense-1.6#219
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense-0.2#173
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.1% 8.0% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.5% 3.2% 0.4%
Average Seed 12.8 11.5 13.0
.500 or above 26.0% 58.5% 24.7%
.500 or above in Conference 30.5% 54.2% 29.6%
Conference Champion 2.2% 5.0% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 20.8% 8.7% 21.2%
First Four0.4% 1.3% 0.4%
First Round2.9% 7.2% 2.7%
Second Round0.5% 2.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 1.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Ohio St. (Away) - 3.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 21 - 41 - 7
Quad 33 - 54 - 12
Quad 44 - 29 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 25, 2020 17   @ Ohio St. L 60-79 4%    
  Dec 11, 2020 130   @ Ball St. L 65-72 27%    
  Dec 15, 2020 345   Chicago St. W 74-55 96%    
  Mar 08, 2021 64   @ Northern Iowa L 63-77 12%    
  Mar 08, 2021 76   @ Loyola Chicago L 61-74 15%    
  Mar 08, 2021 117   @ Bradley L 66-74 25%    
  Mar 08, 2021 122   @ Indiana St. L 66-74 26%    
  Mar 08, 2021 135   @ Missouri St. L 68-75 29%    
  Mar 08, 2021 144   @ Drake L 68-74 31%    
  Mar 08, 2021 155   @ Valparaiso L 70-75 33%    
  Mar 08, 2021 168   @ Southern Illinois L 63-67 36%    
  Mar 08, 2021 261   Evansville W 73-66 72%    
  Mar 09, 2021 64   Northern Iowa L 66-74 28%    
  Mar 09, 2021 76   Loyola Chicago L 64-71 31%    
  Mar 09, 2021 117   Bradley L 69-71 43%    
  Mar 09, 2021 122   Indiana St. L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 09, 2021 135   Missouri St. L 71-72 48%    
  Mar 09, 2021 144   Drake W 71-70 51%    
  Mar 09, 2021 155   Valparaiso W 73-72 52%    
  Mar 09, 2021 168   Southern Illinois W 66-64 54%    
  Mar 09, 2021 261   @ Evansville W 70-69 54%    
Projected Record 8 - 13 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Missouri Valley Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 2.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.0 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.2 2.4 1.9 0.7 0.1 6.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.3 2.3 0.5 0.1 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.0 2.4 0.4 0.0 9.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.6 3.2 4.7 2.2 0.3 0.0 11.1 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 4.3 5.1 2.1 0.3 0.0 13.0 7th
8th 0.3 2.0 5.3 4.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 14.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.1 3.6 5.8 4.1 1.4 0.1 16.1 9th
10th 0.9 3.0 4.2 3.5 1.8 0.5 0.1 14.1 10th
Total 0.9 3.1 5.3 7.4 9.7 11.1 11.3 10.8 9.8 8.5 7.3 5.6 3.9 2.6 1.5 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 Total



Missouri Valley Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 92.9% 0.3    0.3 0.0
15-3 67.4% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 42.7% 0.6    0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-5 19.5% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 3.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 1.1 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.1% 78.6% 52.4% 26.2% 7.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 55.0%
16-2 0.3% 74.4% 41.6% 32.8% 9.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 56.1%
15-3 0.8% 53.3% 36.3% 17.0% 11.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 26.6%
14-4 1.5% 28.0% 19.6% 8.5% 12.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.1 10.5%
13-5 2.6% 11.9% 10.1% 1.8% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.2 2.0%
12-6 3.9% 10.7% 10.4% 0.3% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 3.5 0.3%
11-7 5.6% 5.0% 5.0% 13.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 5.3
10-8 7.3% 4.9% 4.9% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 6.9
9-9 8.5% 2.9% 2.9% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 8.2
8-10 9.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9.7
7-11 10.8% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.1 10.8
6-12 11.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.3
5-13 11.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-14 9.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.6
3-15 7.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.4
2-16 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.3
1-17 3.1% 3.1
0-18 0.9% 0.9
Total 100% 3.1% 2.6% 0.4% 12.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.4 0.3 96.9 0.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%